Monday, 8 April 2013

The "little book" Strategy in Hong Kong

This strategy is largely based on the strategy described in the book "The Little Book That Still Beats the Market " by Joel Greenblatt.

The Strategy in Mr Greenblatt's book basically  choose those stocks which ranks high in terms of "valuation" (the lower the higher rank) and "profitability" (the higher the higher ranking). And the stocks that rank high in the overall ranking (sum of the too rankings) will be chosen. Usually a list of 20-30 top ranking stocks will be chosen to form a portfolio and held for a year.

 We backtested largely the same strategy in Hong Kong market from May 2003- Dec 2012, with a bit of tweaking in the definition of profitability, using purely bloomberg data. Also another difference is Mr Greenblatt's book divide the whole US market into Large cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap, whereas our backtest divide the Hong Kong market into Large cap and small Cap and we only tested Large cap. ( We are a bit concerned about the quality of the financial statements from small caps in HK, and this is very arbitrary though). 

Another thing worth highlighting is that we only chose the companies with their financial years ending on Dec 31st each year, and we lag the ranking process by 5 months (so most of the companies would have published their annual results by then, to avoid "peeping into the future"). That is why the testing period starts in May 2003. And the annual return in the testing results below is from May to May next year.

 Below is the testing results:

Stock Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5
2003 66.24% 42.81% 32.97% 59.98% 45.64%
2004 38.83% 18.58% 18.72% 39.87% 35.91%
2005 23.22% 26.00% 35.75% 26.05% 33.16%
2006 83.41% 75.02% 70.80% 58.43% 86.10%
2007 0.27% -4.72% -5.15% -5.67% -25.73%
2008 -16.51% -25.54% -24.00% -14.44% -14.11%
2009 49.11% 48.72% 32.81% 25.14% 16.14%
2010 32.54% 24.51% 34.06% 28.81% 6.95%
2011 -20.18% -25.91% -23.83% -24.79% -33.36%
2012 till DEC 10.57% 14.51% 15.29% 21.86% 11.75%
Annulized Return 23.83% 16.19% 16.09% 19.26% 11.84%

Note: Group 1 means the 20% of the stocks with the highest ranking, Grooup 2 means the next 20% of the stocks with the second highest ranking, and so on, Group 5 means the 20% of the stocks with the lowest ranking. The whole universe = The top 50% companies (by market cap) with Fiscal year ends on Dec 31st.

 We can see over the years, as the book suggested, the group with higher ranking tends to outperform the group with lower ranking.
 
As a comparison, the performance for the HSI ETF (2800), the whole universe, the top 9 stocks and top 18 stocks every year is as follows:
Stock 2800 All Top 9 Top 18
2003 32.61% 49.26% 77.41% 67.10%
2004 17.84% 30.35% 54.20% 52.86%
2005 18.47% 28.82% 46.72% 26.63%
2006 33.69% 74.75% 89.79% 86.94%
2007 21.51% -8.25% 3.66% 0.35%
2008 -22.84% -18.89% -21.64% -24.29%
2009 11.46% 34.38% 48.37% 70.47%
2010 22.70% 25.48% 16.78% 15.80%
2011 -18.53% -25.63% -7.33% -11.23%
2012 till DEC 20.02% 14.80% 6.60% 15.83%
Annulized Return 12.66% 17.67% 28.20% 26.49%

We were "greedy" so we went for top 9 stocks in real life testing. below is the result from real-life testing so far: (starting July 31st, instead of May 31st though)

Stock code Price bought Amount invested Unit cost price Quantity
00285 1.54 27824.35 1.5458 18000
00883 15.4 30915.84 15.4579 2000
00189 4.22 25415.79 4.2360 6000
01208 2.94 23608.84 2.9511 8000
00550 2.92 23448.35 2.9310 8000
00623 3 27101.36 3.0113 9000
08058 5.865 23548.6 5.8872 4000
00458 4.192 21038.73 4.2077 5000
03838 0.205 28919.62 0.2066 140000





And the performance:


Month Total portfolio value  Monthly return YTD return
Jul-12 253,854.71 0.00% 0.00%
Aug-12 245,523.23 -3.28% -3.28%
Sep-12 251,585.99 2.47% -0.89%
Oct-12 269,423.97 7.09% 6.13%
Nov-12 273,113.97 1.37% 7.59%
Dec-12 286,433.97 4.88% 12.83%
Jan-13 307,703.97 7.43% 21.21%
Feb-13 315,583.97 2.56% 24.32%
Mar-13 298,053.97 -5.55% 17.41%

I will update the results on a monthly basis.

The complete list of stocks each year is as follows, by ranking:
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
50 1133 137 458 984 980 980 1200 410 623
984 393 135 1223 1097 62 3800 432 1200 189
1177 1053 458 732 1122 1168 255 984 2355 100
1120 1093 1171 984 3311 2000 2000 50 984 285
258 156 268 3311 762 1097 215 1168 100 97
393 135 1225 941 665 556 184 255 941 883
696 941 941 856 2000 934 811 2355 489 893
124 1200 613 184 732 1889 1097 62 873 2300
709 1177 184 762 696 665 97 489 1333 873
1228 226 393 1005 74 1200 100 2868 1135 639
1223 210 696 1171 710 1122 1093 533 312 633
941 274 281 883 941 184 984 941 832 941
1225 857 1135 274 980 984 1168 573 393 746
1053 74 771 74 369 806 856 100 533 777
1097 1097 566 517 1135 762 408 3888 270 2020
229 1120 1005 1135 1168 1135 3398 811 2331 856
857 1223 732 598 51 1133 819 8 566 696
1122 1135 157 2333 2877 576 2877 1093 728 3888
694 1122 297 857 408 299 3899 393 576 533
1135 533 366 31 728 2877 62 728 934 1888
116 2333 857 728 3983 3889 1133 1333 811 617
293 764 697 1138 857 255 1883 389 3888 728
732 697 1200 1122 135 3398 3868 576 293 811
641 696 2320 710 693 31 777 2313 386 62
255 86 1097 157 583 533 1171 270 511 8
218 2338 563 268 3335 393 393 382 1968 2010
626 883 2877 1177 6 811 828 596 215 576
1171 710 74 709 533 710 709 3899 255 382
1100 124 2338 554 184 3838 1889 552 573 980
710 598 626 1000 511 258 533 1169 2010 626
693 392 882 995 576 728 941 215 3818 1968
728 641 1100 393 3355 1177 1888 696 389 1149
883 50 186 2877 626 755 1169 511 2338 555
86 6 522 533 1223 583 1135 546 2369 743
289 626 762 626 522 3336 1177 1863 3899 1883
1114 1044 693 1120 438 107 728 210 285 511
291 934 258 576 261 274 493 189 1122 589
598 1171 236 568 281 270 74 2000 2300 1266
1203 270 1223 270 171 2698 157 680 3378 489
135 1052 653 408 116 828 578 1186 2000 2313
242 566 728 769 709 489 623 2300 641 573
1126 693 883 1043 2341 408 576 1888 995 709
688 902 270 107 3398 1114 883 289 81 995
99 386 694 583 270 100 135 1666 626 270
44 62 934 980 2 3983 3983 2678 883 3818
363 694 1036 6 299 135 769 2698 8 984
902 363 617 358 357 573 270 1883 62 653
6 921 293 641 268 543 1399 235 3300 1177
2 762 1198 818 1919 941 445 709 382 1135
522 8 710 522 489 626 583 410 1813 3983
769 709 511 293 8 2382 543 386 522 215
576 1203 138 560 921 769 2313 157 1638 393
1138 289 598 693 1120 1093 357 846 2006 289
62 728 560 1100 746 1883 289 1828 1888 325
274 373 1169 1919 3336 511 696 2345 1093 425
934 522 769 138 3399 709 1919 887 210 173
392 357 2380 2 62 6 596 3398 639 1333
3 107 388 604 1177 2338 425 543 980 308
27 242 2323 71 1200 1169 762 38 1368 543
386 68 1000 2369 100 522 3889 769 2868 880
1105 1225 6 1212 769 995 560 1207 555 831
8 1212 1120 934 694 220 107 3378 2382 255
995 388 2 2866 2018 218 626 604 3336 1368
1036 2342 670 1169 598 1052 1368 156 1169 2198
267 258 242 2889 629 641 2218 693 1882 1169
308 1138 581 386 274 293 233 3383 425 826
100 688 255 135 2313 883 8 1368 233 86
1070 589 386 493 2300 696 1193 1628 177 493
888 588 289 2000 148 1155 573 1114 308 386
270 1193 8 255 1076 693 800 3330 357 1088
2883 116 62 882 1000 694 606 688 289 598
107 1192 86 161 157 268 2018 86 1088 331
1052 576 229 696 554 3993 6 2777 2866 3378
175 2883 493 44 44 171 522 921 1133 552
2323 1126 81 1205 2398 581 127 3818 31 82
157 665 665 50 2698 289 2338 449 856 1171
51 291 709 363 186 1888 511 3808 327 1008
4 173 838 635 393 882 2300 570 2228 1200
357 2 980 8 293 177 832 2018 653 1234
373 882 165 2319 419 603 1070 1088 2313 693
583 232 2883 392 1169 251 251 2342 3883 603
702 2357 2333 100 210 157 1052 754 709 2006
683 4 589 1052 66 1838 552 800 552 3382
1045 581 995 299 251 3330 568 390 2198 177
762 980 1212 388 3 8 818 883 2678 1205
588 3 641 3368 2333 598 1666 522 1052 3368
71 769 392 432 388 1882 86 1080 1666 809
418 100 265 4 3318 2369 839 220 1883 2877
1211 1666 358 2698 405 2618 258 538 857 3339
177 20 635 1193 1666 3308 489 828 121 853
715 983 274 201 2383 1193 38 960 732 3335
943 157 100 698 218 127 3308 2331 1098 914
921 32 432 62 267 1899 2345 589 693 51
20 255 506 700 50 357 546 746 337 2777
670 71 1177 291 3308 388 3378 425 583 769
186 1114 583 581 392 2333 2722 1052 148 388
1093 89 2866 1666 31 13 589 388 2777 951
517 931 1126 425 1192 629 358 1882 2698 3393
1043 1045 698 148 883 86 3818 3331 694 2228
521 119 357 1093 1898 1893 555 34 2005 157
1038 251 576 116 589 838 2 285 777 297
32 123 1043 2331 1212 818 44 173 633 732
144 560 1053 2357 1203 2 2342 3983 746 2722
19 186 1138 137 700 44 432 2319 3382 866
969 154 1203 1207 622 32 268 603 2877 258
991 635 4 2678 127 857 116 555 1800 1882
1055 2899 987 45 581 3322 1893 124 2342 1128
89 1036 2331 809 3368 116 570 2020 86 2128
1168 1043 51 2028 1052 405 3993 653 175 3993
56 233 127 665 2331 1171 2020 506 806 670
882 1207 1194 1200 432 552 148 208 2020 152
511 66 438 589 71 210 177 639 392 121
45 511 28 357 177 2005 220 2369 258 67
14 44 1052 902 386 2319 388 715 517 3899
1207 583 1207 1036 289 2313 2331 995 1149 1863
148 229 888 2880 698 272 45 1177 3838 148
152 914 3 838 754 589 2698 893 838 1733
1136 1168 517 78 154 2889 3393 1777 325 1813
1 293 107 289 894 2866 1899 880 880 857
257 19 363 2380 1043 2899 438 233 152 566
809 1224 161 2300 4 2345 868 6 603 230
1193 1105 984 588 828 152 697 258 3983 832
66 1038 2357 622 291 3393 3888 116 1708 1136
1098 171 123 51 898 386 1388 373 670 357
81 106 1666 670 995 1055 506 2338 712 522
2688 754 898 2383 45 3 755 2877 543 829
610 1070 408 1168 2338 81 1828 357 755 358
41 1 1045 694 425 697 3999 732 598 41
187 715 914 1038 358 38 732 1238 658 1212
874 12 71 20 1388 2018 3838 1171 656 891
388 97 1193 828 103 2383 1881 1898 2319 762
754 51 50 19 363 1818 806 813 493 1708
34 27 210 208 255 425 2088 3883 2008 1194
1169 991 44 1053 161 56 1212 838 291 3868
194 177 902 229 2342 2006 700 1212 1008 71
1224 187 116 2342 13 700 693 1070 3868 1093
1666 680 291 89 1193 1828 598 177 2333 694
764 165 373 186 2678 3378 665 891 1128 66
171 308 683 3 2005 1666 56 1234 828 1818
123 2355 921 156 1114 856 750 1128 2618 2960
13 604 588 369 56 493 3368 980 2883 691
1133 250 2899 1044 3378 148 1898 700 877 2382
506 2698 604 250 38 45 517 832 71 1777
931 874 119 506 78 1881 1882 1800 1234 1006
156 56 156 487 1088 2342 1880 581 1899 581
119 144 1083 908 735 732 405 1097 373 3308
358 683 56 2320 86 250 1205 3389 388 665
604 152 34 1083 1055 809 603 806 3368 538
68 517 755 66 1053 3999 3311 1109 762 3337
914 2868 2307 1114 808 71 809 762 2722 1265
251 31 97 297 1133 496 66 2 589 925
31 127 1136 2883 3330 227 660 598 1177 806
1205 267 124 1201 549 392 363 990 1186 2345
28 28 20 123 809 3368 182 2357 1212 293
46 45 1038 97 2319 41 3337 20 700 2355
353 14 1044 764 560 1212 2355 982 891 3389
232 230 2355 1055 882 996 137 41 3308 291
885 418 1070 233 902 2300 41 2880 1039 1052
74 610 187 1 755 569 1043 1818 663 1666
635 148 1201 251 1171 2331 3 175 921 2333
173 995 754 34 175 308 625 4 2 1025
697 732 190 210 3322 656 32 121 2357 1899
226 1136 45 2338 41 754 210 1135 157 700
1215 1098 308 175 1041 2600 196 2722 1628 819
127 358 78 360 308 1207 1138 857 688 3898
613 809 2698 991 2866 2002 71 291 1055 1070
165 78 19 32 670 487 2005 1968 1918 1122
1109 506 1093 63 2626 3933 3382 1044 1966 116
1192 1055 1122 2355 19 538 2008 31 3800 198
983 194 2342 152 75 2088 2383 2333 581 3383
281 1211 715 56 1044 337 808 704 135 2883
433 13 89 165 2345 34 656 1880 3898 960
106 755 233 14 1093 363 2688 2688 1898 56
233 2688 688 242 1038 819 887 148 3393 2319
755 41 32 187 838 4 639 3308 817 1880
182 747 103 697 487 2868 3933 3336 6 2

670 1211 28 233 2626 754 1899 1881 31

257 14 613 137 285 3330 755 1207 1193

1205 355 38 680 66 538 74 546 210

34 991 194 1070 874 995 107 1205 735

175 250 267 641 137 1088 268 56 2342

888 112 75 14 189 171 2005 893 50

1109 809 2218 1211 808 81 1638 2128 175

2389 2319 41 20 902 227 656 2688 6

613 1168 1192 123 517 2006 66 1893 355

200 1192 2899 1207 175 75 2899 1919 337

836 1055 754 3393 3382 14 408 268 1898

563 66 929 3898 3886 588 3382 363 1133

1169 610 836 1068 419 1838 1215 1238 13


194 563 97 8299 366 660 3383 44


227 12 506 1038 175 1881 926 848


148 914 173 715 1044 1098 51 3323


152 128 24 14 3336 868 2345 27


267 1133 856 358 13 405 2007 1628


1189 983 32 817 1833 683 50 506


1 715 3900 1211 308 631 1036 405


983 2688 381 165 20 3311 853 1828


2383 258 119 267 165 3868 569 45


12 308 2088 1228 1186 1893 538 2618


2218 13 874 432 857 2618 848 373


2300 610 1228 50 814 3339 925 38


680 59 2357 3389 419 1838 819 1186


257 171 1083 154 392 626 28 3336


63 868 1800 735 2868 331 1880 124


1205 1203 934 340 2777 337 1044 1094


41 119 868 826 882 67 390 1881


2688 617 500 1044 4 818 1777 2331


144 86 226 51 694 691 951 569


868 355 2889 366 124 272 3330 3808


177 124 34 27 19 874 78 778


226 190 2688 1205 1200 641 2899 32


1109 688 1886 200 189 743 775 2268


27 500 493 208 285 1043 2018 836


622 27 217 506 581 569 691 432


700 1070 1138 1053 934 56 405 1388


1098 683 914 2020 144 3368 3808 1044


1114 144 3339 836 1053 583 604 845


13 177 3383 1813 683 3323 826 257


2868 1109 697 563 31 906 683 1313


175 1224 2883 3383 291 2883 1171 1068


171 127 380 359 914 392 432 2007


121 3886 1060 2688 1155 1 208 201


369 373 715 291 672 308 3339 2868


730 257 2899 1192 3331 1205 813 1800


235 226 201 2355 1393 934 1193 688


639 81 2868 3337 691 13 165 2369


31 2868 337 3311 78 1193 696 2238


200 260 81 606 218 1387 20 81


836 200 12 144 340 568 66 1833


38 173 836 568 1818 1163 13 808


251 680 818 2336 983 694 1198 1893


500 1136 3886 233 1068 809 754 3330


459 1098 1224 382 1114 152 124 1788


487 1105 991 3339 1083 848 74 144


173 639 1036 2778 2357 3933 1828 3333


1105 228 258 610 3323 3393 44 1038


418 419 208 1 569 3900 2880 902


764 273 359 1068 880 775 1733 1918


661 121 2380 3898 232 1006 778 2778



351 242 761 1 3333 189 74



921 366 226 152 914 107 2698



2618 517 670 3898 242 1114 19



1097 648 19 2380 517 757 814



655 165 1833 1038 836 2238 2899



7 3899 1880 604 1038 1 1099




2355 617 1185 14 3933 750




297 1138 293 2380 902 135




2880 3899 661 1833 906 683




3300 2357 250 44 2380 222




194 1083 746 19 1068 196




604 173 874 902 45 773




617 2218 159 588 930 20




683 868 836 496 171 3800




355 554 775 230 808 658




459 373 12 773 1038 887




2618 1898 242 819 769 1055




227 242 617 195 41 3900




3323 124 256 2007 1900 369




702 123 3389 2006 1833 1393




124 2380 2302 2008 829 2688




250 355 827 735 836 1




144 297 610 829 1006 3




286 28 848 3 67 813




200 775 3808 119 845 363




232 688 743 32 2233 1036




3389 74 563 3838 297 251




373 2007 382 1083 1863 1972




555 983 3833 1338 82 715




2777 3331 355 882 3323 588




588 381 230 196 1215 194




688 991 200 3377 809 1083




1 3323 373 45 743 604




1205 813 2883 1194 4 107




467 390 194 293 697 14




156 217 1207 363 3 2357




59 2777 222 672 2778 12




568 1136 996 2218 2268 882




3382 1800 3383 171 34 4




1075 3900 50 358 960 775




813 1088 2778 3898 242 1638




265 661 2007 2009 3337 268




2218 1886 3377 1099 201 697




1136 187 123 144 866 546




635 265 161 866 3333 390




27 921 410 2383 251 906




563 222 390 1813 144 1109




28 683 688 127 19 1238




521 914 381 566 750 161




257 467 267 493 38 3883




1109 182 1800 27 868 467




610 1224 337 257 1136 156




187 194 2899 1036 2398 267




1098 78 369 251 991 1966




152 161 156 123 506 127




613 257 817 839 1083 1098




2369 1098 554 187 1788 78




82 1109 208 606 161 934




190 600 121 297 3311 242




639 521 297 1136 32 2380




230 604 2319 916 14 672




245 658 3339 991 1818 3933




2778 1185 2866 2168 1109 2233




340 702 51 1313 882 2008




382 639 2369 433 257 656




228 2883 2626 256 2626 190




256 555 28 658 914 208




1185 1393 813 1138 715 881




689 59 670 194 874 2880




1215 588 173 81 3331 2018




376 228 386 1068 342 200




660 680 257 778 1163 3377




182 156 190 817 2168 171




1129 119 265 267 588 1900




661 1070 2889 724 127 3300




397 190 1886 1055 773 2009




370 651 2600 369 2600 878





660 1136 1053 1099 256






119 617 878 1838






991 51 570 2005






1036 159 369 28






103 166 331 165






3900 663 983 2362






658 165 1838 632






217 135 1138 868






902 161 200 410






187 200 2383 3823






272 8203 1194 1211






1055 2302 839 1224






351 983 1224 527






1224 3833 230 916






467 931 358 983






1109 78 194 702






413 28 196 956






1098 190 116 433






1813 1185 3377 123






433 82 680 119






27 1224 2362 2168






757 670 159 392






34 381 256 754






921 1393 956 408






931 3800 190 1886






702 2626 1393 1060






680 371 467 1215






228 1886 672 3311






3883 1192 606 2678







2600 119 991







697 617 2626







702 220 187







925 3389 2600







24 631 1938







228 449 568







438 123 641







2889 433 817







1176 1313 159







547 887 1387







217 173 570







1919 1185 3331







351 267 1207







632 198 874







757 916 34







2866 976 661







1094 846 272







1188 182 2383








702 631








661 3833








195 1164








3833 625








818 1101








735 195








2009 680








881 1138








94 606








563 342








12 1080








187 1114








1387 818








3900 846








272 828








578 231








1080 371








632 830








1886 976








1053 182








547 2118








27 1919








371 220








1176 1053








1938 1176








1338 563








1192 449








1070 930









1062









1192









2866









1338


Disclaimer:
Please note that the information are provided for you by way of information only.  All the information, report and analysis were and should be taken as having been prepared for the purpose of general circulation and that none were made with regard to any specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person who may receive the information, report or analysis (including yourself). Any recommendation or advice that may be expressed in or inferred from such information, reports or analysis therefore does not take into account and may not be suitable for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs




Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)